(Photo: David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
The day is finally here for the Los Angeles Lakers where they will learn about the prospects of their future with the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery. The Lakers will either be in a great position by landing one of the top 5 picks in the draft by acquiring a great young asset or dealt a massive blow to their future rebuilding plans by falling out of the top 5 and losing their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers.
We take a look at a few of the numbers as it relates to the Lakers chances of landing a top pick, staying in the top 5 and what it would take to fall out of the top 5 and lose their pick.
The Lakers have a 11.9 percentage chance of landing the 1st overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft but have a slightly better chance of landing the 2nd pick (12.6%), 3rd pick (13.3%). The best odds is on the Lakers dropping 1 spot and landing in the 5th position at a 35.1 percentage chance which is still great as they’ll get to keep their pick. The scary number is 17.2 percent which is the odds of the Lakers falling to the 6th or 7th position which would mean they would lose their lottery pick.
The number of years since the Lakers last picked 1st overall. It was 33 years ago that the Lakers picked James Worthy with the 1st overall picks in the 1982 NBA Draft. The Lakers took Worthy over the likes of Terry Cummings and Dominique Wilkins and these many years later it proved to be the right choice. Worthy went on to have a Hall-of-Fame career and win 3 championships with the Lakers in the 80s.
Is the percentage of time the 4th seeded team in the NBA Draft Lottery has fallen out of the top 5 over the last 25 years which is the lifespan of the current lottery format. What that means is that 2 teams seeded 5th or higher have jumped the number 4 seed 4 times in the past 25 years. The 16 percent is pretty much right on with the mathematically probability of 17.2 percent of the event occurring.
Here is a look at the 4 seed in the lottery has fared in the lottery in the last 25 years and the eventual player that they selected. For fun we included the next best available player after their pick.
This is the encouraging number for the Lakers today which is their percentage chance of staying in the top 5. It would take an incredible amount of bad luck for the Lakers to have 2 teams jump them in the lottery and 82.8 percent is pretty good odds for it not to happen.
The results of the Lakers staying in the top 5 when we used the draft lottery simulator on tankathon.com. We only ran the simulator 20 times so it’s a small sample size but the results are pretty close to the calculated probablilities. This is how we fared:
— raining3s (@raining3sdotcom) May 19, 2015
1st pick: 4 times = 20%
2nd pick: 1 time = 5%
3rd pick: 2 times = 10%
4th pick: 3 times = 15%
5th pick: 7 times = 35%
6th pick: 3 times = 15 % (lose pick)
If you would like to take a few spins of the simulator visit tankathon.com.
The 2015 NBA Draft Lottery will air tonight on ESPN before game one of the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets at 5:30 PM Pacific time.